A classified report by the National Intelligence Council (NIC) has concluded that even a large-scale military assault on Iran by the United States would be unlikely to dislodge the Islamic republic’s entrenched military and clerical establishment, The Washington Post reported on Saturday. The assessment comes as the President Donald Trump administration signals the possibility of an extended military campaign, which officials have described as “only just begun”. Tensions in the Middle East surged last week after US and Israeli air strikes killed Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, along with several senior officials, sparking retaliatory attacks from Tehran and broadening the regional conflict. In response, Iran targeted US military bases across multiple Gulf countries, significantly escalating the confrontation. The findings, confirmed by three sources familiar with the report, raise questions about Trump’s stated plan to “clean out” Iran’s leadership and install a ruler of his choosing. Read: US attacks water desalination plant on Qeshm island, claims Iranian FM The report, completed roughly a week before the US and Israel launched operations on February 28, examined scenarios ranging from narrowly targeted strikes against Iran’s leaders to broader attacks on its institutions. In all cases, the NIC concluded that Iran’s clerical and military establishment would follow protocols to preserve continuity of power, even after Khamenei’s death. The likelihood of Iran’s fragmented opposition taking control was described as “unlikely”, the sources said. The NIC, which synthesizes intelligence from 18 US agencies, did not comment publicly, and the CIA referred inquiries to the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, which declined to comment. It is unclear whether Trump was briefed on the report before approving military operations, which have since expanded to include submarine warfare in the Indian Ocean and counter-missile actions near Turkey. White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly said the administration’s objectives under “Operation Epic Fury” were to destroy Iran’s missile and production capabilities, dismantle its navy, prevent the arming of proxies and stop the country from obtaining a nuclear weapon. “The Iranian regime is being absolutely crushed,” she said. Experts say the NIC’s assessment was rooted in a deep understanding of Iran’s institutions. Suzanne Maloney, vice president at the Brookings Institution, said the report reflected long-established structures designed to maintain stability. “Even if they’re not able to project that power very effectively against their neighbours, they can certainly dominate inside the country,” she said. The report did not examine scenarios involving US ground forces or arming Iran’s ethnic Kurds to foment rebellion. Meanwhile, Iran’s succession process, managed by the Assembly of Experts, remains intact, with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and other security bodies playing influential roles. Also Read: Pakistan, Saudi Arabia discuss joint measures to halt Iranian attacks Speculation has arisen around Mojtaba Khamenei, the late supreme leader’s son, though no official announcement has been made, and resistance exists among other power brokers, including Ali Larijani, secretary of the Supreme National Security Council. As the conflict enters its second week, Trump has demanded Iran’s “UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER” and suggested he should have a role in selecting the country’s next leader, calling Mojtaba “incompetent” and a “lightweight”. Iran’s Parliament speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, rejected the notion, emphasising that the fate of the nation would be decided by Iranians alone. Current and former US officials report little evidence of a mass popular uprising or internal fissures that could alter the regime. Security forces previously suppressed protests in January, leaving thousands dead. Analysts say this limits Trump’s ability to influence political outcomes. Holly Dagres, senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said Iran’s leadership was ideological and resistant to external pressure. The NIC report concluded that no internal force could confront the regime’s remaining power, suggesting that, despite ongoing air and naval campaigns, the clerical and military establishment’s control over Iran was likely to endure.
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